On February 18, local time, the Cabinet of Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi officially resigned en masse at an extraordinary cabinet meeting. On the same day, in the prime ministerial designation elections held in both houses of Japan’s Diet, Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) President Sanae Takaichi was elected Japan’s 105th Prime Minister by an absolute majority, formally initiating the formation of her second cabinet. Following the appointment and attestation ceremony for the Prime Minister and cabinet ministers held at the Imperial Palace that evening, the second Takaichi Cabinet, whose core feature is the complete retention of all ministers, was officially established.
I. Core Logic and Overall Characteristics of the New Cabinet’s Personnel Arrangements
Personnel arrangements in the Japanese Cabinet are never simple appointments and dismissals of officials; they are a comprehensive product of power distribution within the ruling party, the implementation of political ideologies, and the management of governance risks. The unconventional decision to retain all ministers for the second Takaichi Cabinet, while appearing to break the convention of reshuffling the cabinet after a major election, is actually a precise political calculation by Sanae Takaichi based on the current political landscape.
(A) Prioritizing Policy Continuity: Using Personnel Stability to Secure Quick Realization of Election Gains
The primary consideration for retaining all ministers is to minimize internal friction during the power transition, allowing for the rapid fulfillment of election promises and the consolidation of the ruling advantage. Looking at the timeline, the first Takaichi Cabinet was formed in October 2025 and lasted only 4 months until its collective resignation. Its core governing team has not yet completed a full policy cycle. The early House of Representatives election directly interrupted the deliberation process for the Japanese government’s FY2026 budget bill. If the budget is not approved by April, Japan will face an unprecedented “budget vacuum” crisis, stalling key fiscal arrangements such as livelihood subsidies, public services, and defense spending. Against this backdrop, retaining all ministers can minimize policy continuity gaps caused by personnel changes, enabling the ministerial team familiar with the budget bill to quickly restart Diet deliberations. This would allow for the rapid implementation of core policies promised during the election, such as “responsible proactive fiscal policy,” the time-limited reduction of the food and beverage consumption tax, and measures to address the declining birthrate. Concurrently, stable personnel arrangements can signal government stability to markets and the public, helping to maintain high approval ratings around 70% and accumulate political capital for subsequently advancing contentious issues like constitutional revision.
(B) High Degree of Ideological Uniformity: A Conservative-Right Wing Hue Pervades the Entire Governing Team
Unlike previous Japanese cabinets, which prioritized “factional balance first, ideological alignment second,” the core characteristic of the second Takaichi Cabinet is “ideology first.” All retained ministers are highly aligned with Takaichi’s conservative-right wing political stance, forming the most ideologically unified right-wing cabinet in postwar Japan. Takaichi herself, as a “political protégé” of Shinzo Abe, is widely recognized as a far-right figure in Japanese politics. Her core political agenda consistently revolves around four directions: revising the pacifist constitution, explicitly writing the Self-Defense Forces (SDF) into Article 9, promoting Japan’s “normalization as a state,” strengthening defense capabilities, and historical revisionism. Among the retained ministers, whether core cabinet members like the Chief Cabinet Secretary, Defense Minister, and Foreign Minister, or those responsible for economic security, justice, education, and science, all are core members of the “constitutional revision faction” in Japanese politics. They maintain a high degree of consistency with Takaichi on issues like military expansion, historical perception, and a hardline stance toward China. This cabinet has completely abandoned the moderate and centrist members previously included for factional balance, clearing internal execution obstacles for advancing her right-wing political agenda.
(C) Dual Game of Factional Balance and Personal Power Centralization: Weakening Factional Politics and Strengthening Personal Dominance
The core foundation of the LDP’s long-term governance is the internal power balance mechanism formed by “factional politics.” Personnel arrangements in successive Japanese prime ministers’ cabinets have essentially been about distributing Diet seats and cabinet positions among the party’s major factions. However, Takaichi’s cabinet layout this time exhibits distinct characteristics of “balancing factions while breaking their constraints, and strengthening personal power centralization,” marking a further decline of Japan’s postwar factional political system. In terms of factional coverage, the retained ministers still accommodate the interests of major factions within the LDP, such as the Aso faction, the Motegi faction, and remnants of the Kishida faction, avoiding collective opposition from party elders due to personnel arrangements and preserving a basic support base for her administration’s stability. The deeper logic, however, is that Takaichi’s victory in the snap election has fundamentally altered the power dynamics within the LDP. Previously, her rise to power heavily relied on support from party elders like Taro Aso and remnants of the Abe faction, leading to her being viewed externally as a “puppet prime minister.” After this election, a significant number of newly elected LDP Diet members are seen as “Takaichi protégés.” Her personal power base has shifted from “factional delegation” to “direct voter connection,” greatly diminishing the role of traditional faction leaders as power intermediaries. The decision to retain all ministers is essentially a “loyalty screening” by Takaichi of her governing team—the core criteria for retention is not factional seniority, but personal loyalty to her and alignment with her policy ideology. Even ministers from the Aso and Motegi factions are core members who firmly supported her decision to dissolve the House of Representatives during the election campaign. This frees the current cabinet from the constraints of traditional factional politics, making it a core tool for Takaichi to advance her personal political agenda. This is also the core reason for her confidence in dissolving the House of Representatives before the election without consulting faction elders.
(D) Flexible Arrangement for the Ruling Coalition: Maintaining the LDP’s Absolute Dominance in Sole Governance
Another major feature of this cabinet’s personnel layout is the continued “extra-cabinet cooperation” model with the ruling coalition ally, Nippon Ishin no Kai, which remains excluded from cabinet membership. This arrangement is also a precise calculation by Takaichi based on the current political landscape. In terms of governance needs, the LDP has already secured over two-thirds of the seats in the House of Representatives alone. Even without Ishin’s support, it can independently complete bill deliberations and budget approvals. Ishin’s previous status as a “critical minority” has been completely lost; it is no longer a necessary condition for the administration’s survival. Excluding Ishin from the cabinet list avoids policy disagreements and power concessions inherent in coalition governance, especially on issues like immigration policy, regional decentralization, and consumption tax reform, where significant differences remain between the LDP and Ishin. Governing alone maximizes policy autonomy. Simultaneously, the flexible “extra-cabinet cooperation” model preserves political buffer space. On one hand, it allows for leveraging Ishin’s support in future political agendas like the House of Councillors election to consolidate the ruling advantage. On the other hand, if her radical right-wing policies provoke strong backlash from domestic public opinion and neighboring countries, she could subsequently reshuffle the cabinet to include Ishin members, shifting public pressure and adjusting policy pace. This alliance arrangement of “dominance retained, flexibility in advance and retreat” fully demonstrates Takaichi’s mature political maneuvering skills.
II. Trend Assessment of the New Cabinet’s Policy Direction
The personnel layout of the second Takaichi Cabinet essentially establishes the core execution framework for implementing her political agenda. With the LDP securing over two-thirds of the seats in the House of Representatives—the threshold for proposing constitutional amendments—and coupled with an ideologically highly uniform cabinet team, the Takaichi administration now possesses all conditions to advance a radical political agenda. Japan is set to accelerate its deviation from the postwar pacifist system.
(A) Accelerated Phase for Constitutional Revision and Military Strengthening: A Decisive Break from Postwar Pacifist Constraints
Constitutional revision and military strengthening are Takaichi’s lifelong political pursuits and the core agenda of this cabinet, set to enter a phase of comprehensive acceleration.
- Constitutional Revision Process to Fully Commence: The LDP alone holds over two-thirds of the seats in the House of Representatives. Combined with support from ruling coalition ally Nippon Ishin no Kai, it meets the Diet threshold for proposing constitutional amendments. This cabinet will formally propose a constitutional amendment bill during its term. The core aim is to explicitly write the SDF into Article 9, completely abolishing the clause renouncing “the right of belligerency,” clarifying Japan’s “right of belligerency,” and fulfilling Shinzo Abe’s unrealized ambition. Concurrently, the cabinet will gradually increase public support for revision through publicity and public opinion guidance, laying the groundwork for a national referendum.
- Leapfrog Upgrade in Defense Capability Building: This cabinet will formally implement the goal of raising defense spending to 2% of GDP, moving the original 2027 target forward to 2026. This would double Japan’s defense budget, making it the world’s third-largest military spender. Funds will focus on areas like long-range strike weapons, missile defense systems, naval and air equipment upgrades, cyber warfare, and space warfare, transforming the SDF from “exclusively defense-oriented” to possessing “active attack” capabilities, including “preemptive strike capability” against neighboring countries.
- Japan will comprehensively ease weapons export controls, re-examining the “Three Principles on Arms Exports,” planning to export lethal conventional weapons, and deeply integrating into the global defense industrial chain. Furthermore, it will continuously deepen Japan-U.S. military integration, strengthen defense cooperation with NATO, Australia, South Korea, and other countries/regions, fully align with the U.S. Indo-Pacific Strategy, and build a military alliance system for containing China. Regarding the Taiwan issue, this cabinet will continue to propagate the fallacious notion that “a Taiwan contingency is a Japanese contingency,” strengthen military deployments on the southwestern islands, deepen unofficial exchanges with the Taiwan region, continuously provoke China’s core interests, becoming the most destabilizing factor for security in East Asia.
(B) Proactive Fiscal Policy Dominance, with Economic Security and Supply Chain Restructuring as Core Themes
On economic policy, this cabinet will completely abandon Japan’s long-standing fiscal austerity approach, adopting “responsible proactive fiscal policy” as its core tenet, while elevating economic security to a central position in national strategy.
- Fiscal Policy: The cabinet will launch a large-scale economic stimulus package focusing on livelihood security, industrial upgrading, infrastructure development, and measures against the declining birthrate. It will implement policies promised during the election, such as reducing the food and beverage consumption tax, increasing child-rearing allowances, and revitalizing regional economies, using fiscal expansion to stimulate growth. However, Japan’s government debt is already the highest among developed nations, with a debt-to-GDP ratio exceeding 260%. Sustained fiscal expansion and high defense spending will further exacerbate Japan’s fiscal crisis. Increasing consumption or income taxes to fill the fiscal gap cannot be ruled out in the future, representing the administration’s greatest governance risk.
- Economic Security will be the core theme of this cabinet’s economic policy. Retained Ministers of Economy, Trade and Industry Akari Aizawa and Minister for Economic Security Norimi Onoda are key promoters of Japan’s economic security policy. The cabinet will continuously strengthen the autonomy and control of key industrial chains, promote the reshoring of critical industries like semiconductors, batteries, rare earths, and advanced manufacturing to Japan, deepen “friend-shoring” cooperation with the U.S. and Europe, and comprehensively advance “decoupling” and “supply chain disruption” from China. Simultaneously, it will continuously upgrade technology export controls on China, expanding the scope of restrictions on high-end technologies like semiconductors, AI, and quantum technology, deeply integrating into the U.S.-led technology containment system against China. Furthermore, the cabinet will formally establish a “National Intelligence Council” to strengthen the national intelligence system and enhance risk prevention capabilities in economic security.
(C) Comprehensive Infiltration of Conservative Ideology, Continued Rise of Historical Revisionism
On domestic affairs, this cabinet will comprehensively advance the infiltration of conservative ideology, reinforce historical revisionism, tighten liberalization policies in social domains, and push for an overall conservative shift in Japanese society.
- On Historical Perception: Cabinet members will continue Takaichi’s historical revisionist stance. Visits to Yasukuni Shrine by cabinet ministers will become more normalized. The Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology will revise history textbooks to downplay and whitewash Japan’s war of aggression, erode the achievements of postwar peace education, and instill the ideology of “state normalization” in younger generations. In paving public opinion for constitutional revision, it will persistently promote the “threat theory” regarding neighboring countries, reshaping national identity and nationalist sentiment to build a social foundation for its right-wing agenda.
- On Social Policy: The cabinet will introduce targeted policies in areas like the declining birthrate, aging population, and social security, but core resources will still tilt toward defense and security, likely diluting policy effectiveness. It will also tighten immigration and entry policies for foreigners, strengthening management and scrutiny, catering to xenophobic sentiments among domestic conservatives.
- On National Governance: It will strengthen the national security screening system, expand control over the internet, media, and speech, suppress domestic pacifist and anti-war voices, clearing public opinion obstacles for its radical policies.
(D) Comprehensive Reliance on the Japan-U.S. Alliance, Escalation of Hardline Stance Toward China
On foreign policy, this cabinet will consistently adhere to the diplomatic line of “the Japan-U.S. Alliance as the sole cornerstone,” fully aligning with U.S. global strategy and Indo-Pacific layout. Concurrently, it will adopt a comprehensively hardline competitive posture toward China, with Japan’s foreign policy exhibiting a clear “pro-U.S. tilt.”
- Diplomacy toward the U.S. will be the absolute core of this cabinet’s foreign policy. The Takaichi administration will comprehensively deepen cooperation with the U.S. across all fields—politics, military, economy, technology—actively supporting the U.S. Indo-Pacific Strategy, positioning Japan as a “core ally” in the Asia-Pacific. It will continuously promote Japan-U.S. military integration, expand the scale and permissions of U.S. forces in Japan, deepen cooperation with the U.S. in high-end technology, semiconductors, AI, and integrate into the U.S.-led global technology and economic system.
- On Multilateral Diplomacy: It will continuously deepen Japan-U.S.-South Korea trilateral security cooperation, promote the formalization of a Japan-U.S.-South Korea military alliance, strengthen diplomatic and economic cooperation with Southeast Asian countries like the Philippines, Vietnam, and Indonesia, expanding Japan’s influence in the Indo-Pacific. It will persistently promote NATO’s presence in the Asia-Pacific, deepen defense cooperation with NATO, becoming a core driver of NATO’s “Asia-Pacificization.” Additionally, it will maintain a hardline stance toward Russia, sustaining sanctions, shelving peace treaty negotiations, and adopting a firm position on the Northern Territories issue.
- Policy toward China will be the most variable factor in this cabinet’s diplomacy. Overall, a hardline approach will be the main theme, with continued containment and provocation against China across security, economy, technology, and the Taiwan Strait. In economy and technology, it will comprehensively advance “decoupling” and upgrade technology controls. In security, it will promote the “China threat theory,” strengthen military deployments on the southwestern islands, and cooperate with U.S. military containment of China. On the Taiwan issue, it will continue political manipulation, challenging the One-China principle. However, to avoid a complete breakdown in China-Japan relations causing fatal impact on Japan’s economy, the cabinet may retain limited diplomatic communication channels, maintaining restricted cooperation in non-sensitive areas like climate, environment, and trade, exhibiting a China policy characterized by “competition as the main theme, with limited engagement.”
Overall Assessment
The personnel layout of the second Takaichi Cabinet represents a significant watershed in Japan’s postwar political landscape. The unconventional arrangement of retaining all ministers not only marks the comprehensive consolidation of Sanae Takaichi’s personal power but also signifies that Japan’s conservative-right wing forces have firmly taken control of the nation’s development direction. The postwar pacifist system and factional political system are facing unprecedented transformation. This ideologically highly uniform, strongly right-wing cabinet will propel Japan onto the fast track of “constitutional revision, military strengthening, and state normalization.” Its policy direction will not only profoundly alter Japan’s national destiny but also have far-reaching implications for peace and stability in East Asia. Amidst dramatic shifts in the global geopolitical landscape today, every move by the Takaichi administration warrants high vigilance from the international community.