The tense situation in the Middle East throughout February has reached a critical point. Although negotiations continue, both the United States and Iran recognize these talks as a delaying tactic, with the expectation that a major conflict is unavoidable. Consequently, both sides are actively preparing for war.
The United States is undertaking its largest military buildup in the region since the Iraq War. Carrier strike groups and advanced aircraft are being deployed and positioned around Iran, creating an encircling posture. Simultaneously, Iran has its missiles and drones on high alert, prepared to launch large-scale retaliatory strikes.
If hostilities were to commence, the opening phase would likely involve large-scale airstrikes and special operations, primarily conducted by the US and Israel. Assuming Iran’s air defense capabilities are suppressed, granting the US and Israel air superiority, their air forces would conduct sustained bombing campaigns targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities and missile positions. Concurrently, special operations forces might be deployed for “decapitation strikes” aimed at senior Iranian political and military leadership. The stated objective of such operations would be to disrupt the functioning of the government and paralyze the military command structure.
In response to such an attack, Iran would likely retaliate with its own extensive missile and drone strikes. These would probably target US military bases across the Middle East as well as territory within Israel. Furthermore, Iranian-aligned proxy groups, including the Houthi movement in Yemen and various Iraqi militias, have indicated they would not remain passive in the event of a US attack on Iran and would launch assaults on US and Israeli interests from multiple directions.
In preparation for the possibility of leadership decapitation, Iran has reportedly implemented measures to ensure governmental continuity and command flexibility. This includes decentralizing authority and designating multiple successors. Such measures are designed to prevent a leadership vacuum following an attack, ensuring that a large-scale retaliatory response can still be executed.