On February 28, 2026, the U.S. and Israel launched a large-scale joint airstrike against Iran. Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is reported to have died in the attack.
High-Intensity Exchanges Between the U.S., Israel, and Iran
On February 28, 2026, Israel’s “Operation Roaring Lion” and the U.S. “Operation Epic Fury” were launched simultaneously, striking approximately 30 targets within Iran. These included central Tehran, the presidential palace, the Ministry of Intelligence and National Security, and areas near Ayatollah Khamenei’s residence. U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu each subsequently declared that Khamenei was “no longer living.” Today, Iranian media confirmed that Khamenei has died.
This conflict represents a major escalation in U.S.-Iranian hostilities since 2025. In June 2025, Israel conducted limited airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities during the “12-Day War.” By February 2026, the U.S. military had completed its largest buildup in the Middle East since the 2003 Iraq War, including the deployment of the USS Abraham Lincoln and USS Ford carrier strike groups, over 100 aircraft (including F-22 and F-35 fighter jets), and six E-3 Sentry AWACS aircraft.
Iran has already launched retaliatory strikes, firing approximately 35 ballistic missiles (including Emad and Ghadr medium-range missiles) toward Israel and attacking U.S. military bases in Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is on its highest state of alert, has closed the country’s airspace, and has threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz—a vital waterway through which approximately 26% of the world’s oil passes.
Potential Iranian Responses Following Khamenei’s Death
Based on Iran’s past and current statements, in the extreme scenario where the Supreme Leader’s death is confirmed, the Iranian regime may adopt the following measures:
- Immediate Activation of Pre-Established Power Transfer Mechanisms. Ayatollah Khamenei had reportedly put a comprehensive succession system in place as early as 2025. According to The New York Times, in January 2026, he appointed former IRGC commander and secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, Ali Larijani, to oversee wartime affairs and established a “four-tier succession system”—designating up to four potential replacements for each key military and governmental position. Upon confirmation of Khamenei’s death, the Assembly of Experts, composed of 88 clerics, would convene to quickly elect a new leader. However, during the transition, actual power would likely be assumed by Ali Larijani and his core group to ensure continuity of the regime and an uninterrupted decision-making chain.
- Execution of Large-Scale Retaliatory Strikes. Iran has repeatedly warned of a “devastating response” to any aggression. Retaliation could include: launching more ballistic missiles and hypersonic weapons across Israeli territory; attacking all U.S. military bases in the Persian Gulf region; and mobilizing proxy networks such as Lebanon’s Hezbollah, Yemen’s Houthi movement, and Iraqi Shia militias to launch multi-front attacks against U.S. and Israeli targets. Iran has demonstrated its capability to blockade the Strait of Hormuz. Implementing such a blockade could drive global oil prices above $130 per barrel, causing significant economic disruption worldwide.
- Strengthening the “Resistance Against Foreign Enemies” Narrative to Solidify Internal Unity. Facing domestic economic challenges and protests, the regime may frame Khamenei’s death as a “martyrdom” to stir nationalist sentiment and divert attention from internal issues. The IRGC, Basij militia, and other forces would likely intensify street-level control, establish checkpoints to search for “foreign spies,” and suppress dissenting voices. Concurrently, the regime might demonstrate coordination with allies like Russia, for instance through joint military exercises or the acquisition of air defense systems, to project international support.
- Adoption of Asymmetric Warfare and a Strategy of Prolonged Attrition. Cognizant of its conventional military disadvantages compared to the U.S. and Israel, Iran would likely shift towards asymmetric operations: dispersing nuclear assets within fortified underground facilities; launching cyberattacks to disrupt critical enemy infrastructure; and depleting adversary resources through proxy warfare. Tehran appears to have learned from the 2025 conflict, having reinforced key facilities at Parchin, Isfahan, and Natanz.
- Maintenance of Diplomatic Channels While Refusing to Capitulate. Even after suffering a decapitation strike, the Iranian regime would likely refuse to accept core U.S. demands, such as the permanent abandonment of its nuclear program. However, it might maintain indirect contacts through intermediaries like Qatar or Oman, potentially leaving room for de-escalation. Figures like President Masoud Pezeshkian, considered a relative moderate, might attempt to signal a willingness for negotiation, but actual decision-making authority would remain with the security hardliners.